[The global power dynamics are shifting, with Asia increasingly asserting its influence. Under the leadership of figures like Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping, countries in Asia are forming
strategic alliances that could redefine global power structures…..] By Syed Atiq ul Hassan
In the aftermath of World War II and during the Cold War, the global power landscape experienced a dramatic shift. The British Empire, once the epitome of global dominance, saw its influence wane, making way for the United States to rise economically, defensively, and scientifically to become a world power. This transition was further solidified with the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991, which left the United States as the world’s uncontested superpower. This new era was recognized globally as the New World Order.
The collapse of the Soviet Union was a watershed moment in global politics. Its disintegration was precipitated primarily by its defeat in Afghanistan, which triggered severe economic decline and monetary crises. To combat the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, the United States and Pakistan mobilized Afghan forces and Muslim militants from various countries, framing the conflict as a Jihad (in the name of Islam). These militants received training in northern Pakistan, adjacent to the Afghan border, and bravely confronted the Soviet forces. The conflict, spanning from December 1979 to February 1989, not only led to the Soviet Union’s defeat but also its eventual collapse. This collapse resulted in the emergence of new independent states and the establishment of the Russian Federation.
Before its collapse, the Soviet Union was a formidable superpower composed of 15 republics, including Russia, Belarus, Ukraine, Chechnya, Georgia, Azerbaijan, and Armenia, since 1922. With a population exceeding 290 million and encompassing over 100 nationalities, it was the largest country globally, boasting significant nuclear capabilities, second only to the United States.
Mikhail Gorbachev, who led the Soviet Union from 1985 to 1991, served as General Secretary of the Communist Party, Chairman of the Supreme Soviet, and later as President. However, the prolonged war induced economic crises, inflation, and political turmoil within the Communist Party. The populace grappled with inflation, unemployment, failed economic policies, and the prolonged Afghan conflict. During a failed coup in August 1991, communist hardliners and military elites attempted to overthrow Gorbachev and halt the failing reforms. Nationwide riots ensued, diminishing the government’s influence, leading to the declaration of independence by Soviet states, and culminating in the Soviet Union’s disintegration, leaving only Russia.
Following Gorbachev, Boris Yeltsin assumed power in 1991 but was not a transformative leader. He stepped down in 1999, succeeded by Vladimir Putin, who has since alternated between President and Prime Minister. Currently, Putin is the President of Russia, with ambitions to restore Russia’s superpower status reminiscent of the Soviet era. Known for his strategic acumen and expertise in political diplomacy, Putin has forged strong ties with former Soviet states and neighbouring countries such as China, India, Iran, Syria, Libya, Turkey, South Africa, Brazil and other nations in Africa. Recognizing that Russia alone cannot rival the United States, he has sought alliances to bolster Russia’s global influence.
On February 24, 2022, Russia invaded Ukraine, escalating the Russo-Ukrainian War that began in 2014. Despite substantial financial and military support from the United States and European allies, Ukraine has not achieved victory. This invasion, the largest conflict in Europe since World War II, has resulted in significant military and civilian casualties.
Putin has cultivated strong relations with China, forging a close friendship with Chinese President Xi Jinping. Both leaders align on global political and geopolitical issues, aiming to establish a robust bloc in Asia, including the Middle East. This emerging alliance, alongside African and South American allies, seeks to counterbalance US influence and maintain global power equilibrium.
BRICS, another significant coalition of developing and developed nations, plays a crucial role in this dynamic. Initially formed in 2006 by China, Russia, Brazil, and India, South Africa joined in 2010. The current BRICS membership includes China, Russia, Brazil, India, South Africa, Iran, Egypt, Ethiopia, and the United Arab Emirates. Turkey and Saudi Arabia are anticipated to join soon, and if Imran Khan leads Pakistan, it may also become a BRICS member. The expansion of BRICS could challenge US dominance and influence over the UN and the UN Security Council.
A prospective Asian bloc could include developed and developing countries such as China, Russia, Iran, Turkey, India, Pakistan, Malaysia, Vietnam, North Korea, Indonesia, and Sri Lanka. India, under pressure from Putin, must decide its stance. During a recent visit to Russia, Putin honoured Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi with the Order of St. Andrew, signalling Russia’s desire for a closer alliance with India. While little concrete emerged from Modi’s visit, it suggests ongoing negotiations for a new Asian bloc.
Pakistan’s inclusion in this bloc hinges on resolving its internal crises. Rampant financial and economic corruption, a depleted treasury, and lack of public support plague the current government. China and Russia recognize these issues. Should Imran Khan regain power, support from Saudi Arabia, China, Turkey, and Russia could alleviate Pakistan’s debt and diminish US influence, making Pakistan a vital member of the new bloc, especially with projects like CPEC.
Hungary’s nationalist Prime Minister Orban recently predicted the formation of a new Asian bloc and a shift in the New World Order at a European Union meeting. Following his visits to China and Russia, Orban, an ally of former US President Donald Trump, suggested significant geopolitical changes post-Trump’s potential election victory.
The global power dynamics are shifting, with Asia increasingly asserting its influence. Under the leadership of figures like Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping, countries in Asia are forming strategic alliances that could redefine global power structures. As these nations collaborate and strengthen their economic, political, and military ties, a new world order is emerging, challenging the dominance of the United States and its allies.
The potential for a robust Asian bloc, supported by African and South American allies, signifies a significant shift in global power. The BRICS coalition and other emerging alliances illustrate the growing influence of developing nations in global affairs. As countries like Pakistan navigate their internal challenges and align with these new power structures, the global balance of power continues to evolve, heralding a new era in international relations. (The writer, Syed Atiq ul Hassa, is a Sydney-based journalist, analyst, writer, author and editor Tribune International, Australia. His email address is shassan@tribune-intl.com ).
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