By Ghulam Mustafa Syed
The United States stands as the sole superpower in today’s global political and economic order. As such, the U.S. presidential elections are closely watched worldwide, with the outcome having profound implications for global governance. As we approach the 60th U.S. presidential election, set for November 5, 2024, it’s worth examining both the historical context of American elections and the key dynamics shaping this pivotal moment.
A Glance at U.S. Electoral History: The U.S. Constitution was ratified in 1788, leading to the first presidential election in 1789, when George Washington was elected the first president, with John Adams serving as his vice president. Before this, the U.S. had no chief executive, relying instead on a Confederate Congress with limited executive authority. Milestones such as the 19th Amendment, which granted women the right to vote in 1920, and the Voting Rights Act of 1965, which ensured voting rights for all citizens, have shaped American democracy.
Despite the extensive powers vested in the U.S. president, particularly in foreign policy, the office works closely with Congress to pass legislation. The president’s authority, both domestically and globally, has made U.S. elections a matter of great interest across the world.
The 2024 U.S. Presidential Race: Candidates and Challenges: As the U.S. gears up for its 60th presidential election, the race is heating up between the two main political parties, the Democrats and the Republicans. On the Republican side, former President Donald Trump has secured the party’s nomination once again, emerging as a dominant figure. Trump’s hold over his party remains strong, evident from his overwhelming victory in the Republican primaries.
On the Democratic side, Vice President Kamala Harris has stepped into the spotlight after President Joe Biden’s unexpected withdrawal from the race. At the Democratic National Convention in Chicago this past August, Harris was officially named the party’s presidential nominee. This is a historic moment, as Biden’s withdrawal marks the first time in U.S. history that an incumbent president has pulled out mid-campaign.
The presidential race also includes independent candidates, though none have gained significant traction. Among them was Robert F. Kennedy Jr., nephew of former President John F. Kennedy, who dropped out of the race and threw his support behind Donald Trump in August 2024.
Understanding the Electoral Process: The U.S. presidential election process differs from many other democratic systems. Rather than a simple nationwide popular vote, the outcome is decided by the Electoral College. Each state is allocated a certain number of electoral votes based on population, and candidates must secure at least 270 of these votes to win. Most states follow a “winner-takes-all” system, meaning the candidate who wins the most votes in a state claim all of that state’s electoral votes. This process can lead to scenarios where the popular vote winner does not necessarily win the presidency, as seen in the 2016 election when Hillary Clinton lost to Donald Trump despite securing more votes nationwide.
Key to the election is the so-called “swing states,” a handful of states where the vote is too close to call, and where the outcome will likely determine the next president. As usual, these swing states will be the battlegrounds in 2024, with both candidates focusing their efforts there.
Party Platforms: A Divided Nation: The Democratic and Republican parties represent two contrasting visions for America. The Democratic Party traditionally supports progressive policies, including social welfare programs, environmental protection, and healthcare reform. In contrast, the Republican Party emphasizes conservative principles like fiscal responsibility, lower taxes, and a strong national defense. This ideological divide is expected to be as pronounced as ever in the upcoming election.
The U.S. Congress, which plays a crucial role in the legislative process, consists of two houses: the House of Representatives and the Senate. A total of 538 members makes up the U.S. Congress, with 100 senators and 438 representatives. The party that wins a majority of seats in Congress holds significant influence over the direction of national policy.
An Unprecedented Election: Trump vs. Harris: This election holds extraordinary significance, not only because of the candidates involved but also due to the events leading up to it. Former President Trump, a polarizing figure, has once again placed the Democrats in a difficult position. His enduring popularity, coupled with President Biden’s withdrawal, has shifted the dynamics of the race. According to a September 2024 New York Times survey, Trump leads with 48% of the national vote, while Harris follows closely with 47%.
On September 10, the first and only televised debate between Trump and Harris took place. Both campaigns claimed victory, with Harris adopting a prosecutor-like stance, launching personal attacks against Trump. Despite her sharp performance, there has been no significant decline in Trump’s popularity.
The outcome of the 2024 election remains uncertain, hinging on factors such as voter turnout, campaign strategies, and the prevailing political environment. Critical issues such as the economy, healthcare, climate change, and foreign policy will dominate the campaign.
A Troubling Trend: Assassination Attempts on Trump: One of the most disturbing aspects of this election cycle has been the two assassination attempts on Donald Trump within a span of two months. The first occurred on July 13, during a rally in Pennsylvania, where Trump narrowly escaped harm after a bullet grazed his ear. Tragically, one rally attendee was killed, and another was injured. The second attempt, on September 15 in Florida, was thwarted by the Secret Service. The FBI arrested the attacker, Ryan Wesley Roth, who was reportedly 275 to 455 meters away from Trump at the time.
These attempts on Trump’s life are unprecedented in modern U.S. political history and have heightened tensions. Such events could exacerbate political polarization and deepen societal divisions, potentially affecting the election outcome and the broader U.S. political landscape.
The Road Ahead: What’s at Stake? The 2024 U.S. presidential election will undoubtedly be a defining moment in American history. The potential return of Donald Trump to the White House raises numerous questions about the direction of U.S. domestic and foreign policy. During his first term, Trump implemented significant tax cuts, reshaped U.S. trade policy, and took bold steps in foreign relations. If re-elected, Trump’s unconventional leadership style is likely to have far-reaching implications not only for America but for the world.
Kamala Harris, on the other hand, represents continuity from the Biden administration but with her own distinct vision for the future. As the first woman of colour to be nominated for the presidency by a major party, her candidacy also carries historical significance.
Whatever the outcome, the 60th U.S. presidential election will shape the future of America, influencing not only its domestic trajectory but also its role on the global stage. (The writer is a Karachi-based journalist, his email address is mustafa_gm911@yahoo.com).
END
